02 June 2023
Challenges and Opportunities in Energy Financing: Trends and Strategies for Investors in 2023
The energy financing landscape is dynamic and heavily influenced by an array of external factors. Appetite and desire for investment have never been stronger, but financing options are complex and significant opportunity balances precariously alongside myriad risks.
This year, energy investment faces various, well-trodden hurdles: geopolitical tension, high inflation, raised interest rates, supply chain delays and labour shortages. In 2023, capital spending by the world’s top 500 energy firms is forecast at 9% above pre-pandemic levels.
As the global oil and gas market looks set to grow to USD7,330bn in 2023, experts anticipate the renewable energy market could be worth anywhere between USD9 and USD12 trillion in annual investment by 2030. Yet Gallagher Specialty’s 2022 Private Equity Survey found that energy investment via private equity has declined, dropping 40% last year. Even investment in renewables saw a 7% dip, signalling investor caution in response to political and regulatory uncertainty that has permeated the market.
The power sector – renewables, grids and energy efficiency – experienced the fastest growth in 2022. Yet investment is concentrated in specific areas and regions. In 2020, solar PV attracted 43% of the total investment in renewables. However, JP Morgan predicts offshore/onshore wind financing will overtake solar funding this year
Renewable Energy
Continued shift towards renewable energy will lead to a rise in financing for renewable energy projects, with a particular focus on large-scale projects that can provide reliable and cost-effective energy to communities.
Technology
As technology continues to advance, there will likely be increased investment in energy storage solutions, such as batteries and hydrogen storage, allowing for greater energy independence.
ESG
Greater focus on ESG considerations mean that projects that prioritise sustainable practices, social responsibility, and good governance are likely to receive greater investment and financing.
Energy project finance
International energy companies often try to fund upstream projects themselves or seek corporate loans or high yield debt, but most developers require third-party secured financing. Reserve-based lending (RBL) is common in this sector – where banks provide funding for capital, operational and developmental costs across a number of assets to spread the risk.
Climate concerns have prompted some investors to class oil and gas alongside investment pariahs like firearms and tobacco. Last year HSBC announced that it would no longer fund new oil and gas fields. Nevertheless, oil and gas will continue to play an important role in meeting global energy demands in the next 30-40 years and still requires long-term financing. There is an understanding within banking that fossil fuel must co-exist alongside clean energy, at least for the time being. ESG pressure will likely increase oil and gas activity in the short term as larger companies seek to divest assets to smaller operators. That said, banks may now request additional information, including production levels beyond 2030.
If and when banks do step away from oil and gas fields, other lenders will likely step into the vacuum. A study in early 2023 found that 56 banks have been financing new oil and gas projects, despite carbon neutrality pledges. US lenders Citigroup had given USD30.5bn in financing to groups expanding oil and gas production, followed by Bank of America with USD22.8bn and Japan's MUFG at USD22.7bn.
Basel IV puts pressure on banks
Under the new regulation, a finalisation of Basel III, banks will no longer use their own internal models for large corporates with a turnover of at least EUR500m. The changes, which will come into effect in 2025, aim to harmonise the banking system and align how banks calculate risk. However, the reforms will have an uneven global impact due to the current regional differences in banks’ internal risk models. In reality, the commercial banking market will become tighter and less liquid. For example, the European banking system will need to find 19% more tier 1 capital in its capital buffering system – adding up to an extra EUR52bn, based on current lending volumes. Conversely, US banks will only need 2% of additional tier 1 capital.
The question for energy companies is, with lower appetite amongst major banks for longer maturity projects, how best to finance their business? One study estimates that borrowing costs for EU corporates could increase by 25%. Large corporates with revenues over EUR500m that don’t have credit ratings should act quickly, as unrated companies will be grouped together regardless of credit activity.
Borrowers will need to maximise the use of alternative funding sources where needed.
Opportunities abound for private equity
As banking requirements have escalated, so has the desire to move from the “sell-side” to the “buy-side”, but the field is extremely competitive. Very few private equity firms specialise in oil and gas, mainly due to commodity price volatility. Private equity investment can be present from a project’s outset or arise from acquisition during its operational life. The sector’s comparatively short-term exit strategies are not always congruent with the long-term nature of upstream E&P; therefore, private equity is more common in downstream projects. There is also opportunities for private equity as the energy sector transitions; as the sector winds down less productive assets, decommissioning will be a growing area for investment.
While private equity investors appreciate the potential for returns in the oil and gas sector, they in turn are constrained by those institutional investors who commit capital to them. Over time, these entities will be mindful of the growing anti-fossil fuel sentiment and may shift investment strategy accordingly.
Gallagher’s 2022 Private Equity Survey found that energy investment via private equity dropped 40% last year. Even investment in renewables saw a 7% dip, signalling investor caution in response to political and regulatory uncertainty that has permeated the market.
Governments still have a role to play
Government action of course continues to be a catalyst for significant investment, with Funding sources are often designed to promote the development of clean energy technologies and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. However, worldwide fossil fuel consumption subsidies rose above USD1tn for the first time in 2022.
Along with the world’s increased short-term reliance on fossil fuels, another part of the problem is the global disparity regarding carbon pricing. In the absence of any internationally-agreed disciplines on appropriate levels of energy taxation or carbon prices, around 68 carbon initiatives have currently been implemented in different countries – creating a confusing landscape for investors.
In renewable energy’s incipiency, feed-in tariffs (FITs) and power purchase agreements (PPAs) were fundamental to encouraging investment, permitting governments to guarantee the price investors would receive per KWh, usually over at least a decade.
Now many energy business models are dependent on these subsidies; in fact, an estimated 75% of global solar is linked to FITs, meaning they are also susceptible to changes in regulation. These subsidies can also be notoriously difficult to price – the rate must be sufficient to entice investors but not become a long-term fiscal burden. Governments have started to move away from these kinds of subsidies in favour of more market-driven forms of funding to gain more control over energy supply.
The Middle East and Africa (MENA) is an investable region and has the potential to be instrumental in the energy transition due to capital availability and access to some of the world’s lowest carbon fuels. Presently most climate-related projects are financed ad hoc, and funds are generally sourced from the sale of hydrocarbon exports. Only the UAE has a climate finance network in place.
And of course NOCs themselves are rapidly emerging as investors in their own right; maximising their own credit ratings to build out assets through an integrated model from E&P to refining.
“the million dollar question for energy firms is how to optimally position a project’s investment case to maximise interest from financiers”
How to get ‘bankable’
With a plethora of options available, the million dollar question for energy firms - in a climate where increased scrutiny on energy operations remains intense - is how to optimally position a project’s investment case to maximise interest from financiers.
Becoming bankable is a complex process requiring an in-depth understanding of potential business risk at each incrementally-larger project scale. Often businesses will oversimplify the process and will focus on selling the project’s most overt ‘virtues’ such as strength of balance sheet. In reality, financiers are conducting far more comprehensive due diligence and taking a far more holistic view of opportunity and risk.
For example, technical risks (which create financial exposures through essentially business interruption) are often most acute in new projects seeking to innovate technologically. It’s also why so many renewables start-ups can struggle to get bankable – much of the newest equipment and technology is still (relatively) unrested in ‘real world’ conditions, thereby technical risks such as tech failure will be high on the list of financier concerns.
Similarly, focusing narrowly on the borrower’s sphere of control, is not sufficient. Financiers will be looking at stakeholders (e.g. regulators, project sponsors/developers, employees), suppliers/contractors, offtakers/customers and other influencing groups (e.g. local communities) and considering how changes in circumstance with how the project either interacts or relies on these groups may well impact the profitable operation of the project. Typically diligence criteria will consider supply, product, operations & maintenance, and finance – and risks across these pillars.
Every project is of course different; the approach to finance will therefore be bespoke to each firm, but broadly, in each stage, from financial concept development, to finance model design and negotiation, signing, and later, project management/control, the borrower needs to commit significant preparation time. Project documentation (drawings, calculations, agreements with non funding project participants such as engineering firms, suppliers etc) and financial documentation (loan agreements, insurance agreements, financial guarantees, warranties) must typically show project progression through its incremental, multi-year stages – typically up to 15 years for traditional E&P projects. As such, the chances of bankability profoundly increased with the appointment of financial advisors with expertise – and critically, a track-record - in structuring and executing project finance deals.
Yet there’s also a school of thought that bankability is more than just ‘de-risking’ for potential investors. In reality, the bankability of a project is determined much earlier – in the project development stage itself, and prior to any approach to financiers. Large projects, particularly those with a public/private element, require risks to be allocated to the right parties during a project’s conceptualisation phase. Failure to do this may be an inability to attract investors. In addition, ‘market sounding’ at this early stage – essentially listening to the needs and red-lines of the lending community – enables the project to be shaped with these concerns in mind, including the ideal structure for risk allocation. Having gathered lenders’ feedback early, theoretically this means fewer complications when the financing process actually begins.
The role of insurance in financing energy projects
Whilst a recent report from Reclaim Finance cast a damning light on the policies set out by Lloyd’s of London, the length and complexity of the energy transition means that insurance solutions for the whole energy sector must remain in place to ‘keep the lights on’ whilst we work towards a dependable renewable energy future.
Working with underwriters to prioritise decarbonisation, clean gas and Carbon Capture (CCS) technologies can assist in achieving a sustainable future.
Insurance and risk consulting are vital components in the financing of energy projects; Gallagher Specialty has teams working in all areas of the finance and planning stages of energy projects. We provide a multitude of insurance coverages which can help increase the financial feasibility of energy projects, making them more attractive to investors and accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.
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