21 January 2025
Hull and Machinery and War Risks Market Update Q1 2025
We’re pleased to release the January 2025 edition of the Gallagher Marine Hull & Machinery and War Risks Market Report. 2024 has been an eventful year in the insurance market with a succession of major incidents and events threatening to directly impact the hull and war insurance landscape with wider implications for shipping and beyond.
The catastrophic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore following allision by the MV Dali is likely to be the largest marine insured loss in history. The escalation of the crisis in the Red Sea as well as the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to an exceptionally volatile war risks market with major knock-on effects for shipping and global supply chains. In recent months we have also seen an extremely active Atlantic windstorm season as well as catastrophic flooding in parts of Europe. Indeed, there is risk everywhere you turn with an ever-changing geo-political landscape following several recent changes in national governments.
Market conditions
Against this uncertain backdrop, shipowners are at least enjoying a stable hull & machinery market which, if anything, has softened slightly in the latter part of the year. After a few years of hardening, buyers now have the benefit of increasing choice and competition, especially for those owning and operating modern attractive tonnage with strong historical performance. There is no reason to expect any cause for this to change in the short term. The above-described events will no doubt be felt in the reinsurance world. The incident involving the MV Dali has sent some shockwaves through marine reinsurers and will ultimately affect direct pricing in the marine space. One would expect this to be felt to a greater degree for P&I and liabilities, but hull will not be completely immune to the broader fallout. Hurricanes Helene and Milton were very significant storms which caused catastrophic damage with combined losses possibly of around USD50billion contributing to global insurance catastrophe losses likely to exceed USD100bn for the fifth consecutive year. So, whilst hull direct pricing continues to be stable and, in some cases, falling, the wider global uncertainty does not give any room for complacency.
New entrants bring new capacity
The market has seen an influx of new capacity in the MGA space, including AI Marine and Clearwater. Gardian Marine has also recently opened for business, specialising in ship construction risks. This is in addition to other more established MGAs entrants over recent years which include the likes of Vessel Protect, Navium, Fortify, and Amphitrite. The long-term presence of these MGAs is great news for brokers and owners in terms of the choices available.
The MGA model has become increasingly popular for a number of reasons. MGAs can be good for brokers to work with because they operate in specific niches of industry and are able to quickly understand what we are looking for and what they can do to assist. Gallagher works with a number of pureplay marine MGAs which are characterised by highly responsive service. This is perhaps brought more into the spotlight since COVID19 where transacting business electronically has become the norm. MGAs are a great home for underwriters who may have worked at large multiline insurers and looking to become the masters of their own destinies as they can make critical decisions more easily than in some large organisations. MGAs are also attractive for large insurers to provide capital without hiring the requisite Underwriting expertise internally. They often play in areas of the market which may be cumbersome or inefficient to participate in directly and they can also tailor their level of participation depending on market conditions.
Equally important for market dynamics is the increased appetite of well-established players in the market who are looking to grow their portfolios following some more profitable years. It is worth noting that the majority of new capacity deployed (both MGA and traditional) has been concentrated in the London market, with offerings in Scandinavia, France, Italy, Singapore, and the Middle East remaining relatively unchanged.
The MGA model has become increasingly popular... they operate in specific niches of industry and are able to quickly understand what we are looking for and what they can do to assist.
Placement and claims landscape
The overall picture is an attractive one for shipowners. Hull placements continue to be heavily verticalised and buyers can maintain long-term relationships with lead underwriters whilst taking advantage of the increased choice to place new shares at favourable pricing levels.
A characteristic of the last softer market cycle until 2018 was the use of profitable war premium income to cross-subsidise hull portfolios and prop up some underwhelming results. The potential to do this in 2025 and beyond remains uncertain. The claims environment for War Risks is extremely volatile at the current time. Due to the ongoing situation in the Red Sea with the Houthis, premiums for transits are understandably high, however, the volume of vessels transiting is at a historical low. This means the risk is not spread and the inevitable claims are concentrated across a much smaller group of ships. There is therefore far greater potential for an unlucky hit leaving a war book unprofitable and certainly not generating the level of return which disguises poor performance across other lines such as Hull and Loss of Hire. Furthermore, many Underwriters continue to cover vessels in Black Sea Ukraine / Russia with limited, or in some cases no reinsurance protection, due to reinsurance capacity in this area being largely withdrawn in 2023.
The volatility in the war market, along with the extremely high levels of service required, has created an environment where specialist war underwriters have excelled. Whether that be mutual war insurers like DNK, or specialist war MGAs like Vessel Protect, the speed of service for sanctions screening, quotations, and documentation has come to the forefront.
2025 Outlook
As we begin a new year, there are some key questions which will be sharply in focus over the coming months:
- Will the war in Ukraine be brought to a resolution with the help of the new US administration?
- Will we see a resolution in Gaza and a de-escalation of the wider tensions across the Middle East? Will the recent fall of the Syrian regime contribute positively or negatively to this situation? Is there potential for the Houthis to cease their attacks on merchant shipping or will further military action be needed to neutralise their capabilities?
- Will China exert further pressure and take aggressive action in its attempts to assert its claim on Taiwan?
- Will the global shipping fleet get any closer to a consensus on alternative fuels?
- Will the new US administration’s promise to focus on oil and gas drilling lead to an upturn for the fossil fuel industry and the wider global shipping community resisting previous net zero targets?
- Will recent trends of lower claims frequency in marine hull mean that underwriting results are still profitable after further softening in the market? Or will claims inflation and falling premiums push the market back towards a negative result?
- How will we manage the risks posed to global shipping and the environment by the ‘shadow fleet’?
No doubt we will address some of these issues in our further publications throughout 2025 as we help to guide our clients and partners through the trading and risk management challenges which they face. We remain committed to long-term relationships and open and honest dialogue as we assist our clients with unexpected events and the complexities which follow them.
Marine War Risks
The Marine War Risks landscape has remained turbulent throughout 2024. Ongoing international conflicts, particularly those between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East, have created a continuous threat to merchant shipping. Hostile forces have developed military capabilities and intelligence to coordinate attacks against innocent commercial vessels. As a result, there have been alarming repercussions for global supply chains, commercial shipping routes and the environment. Furthermore, shipowners have been subject to higher additional premiums for select War Risk transits in addition to more stringent protection requirements and warranties.
Middle East
Since the hijacking of the car carrier GALAXY LEADER by the Houthis in November 2023, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have become epicenters of Marine War Risk concerns. The outbreak of war in Gaza in 2023 intensified aggression in the region, with the Houthis targeting commercial vessels in retaliation for events involving Israel and Gaza. Employing advanced weaponry such as missiles and unmanned vehicles, the Houthis have caused severe damage to ships, as demonstrated by the sinking of the RUBYMAR and the SOUNION oil tanker disaster. These attacks have led to heightened fears for global trade, crew safety, and the marine environment, forcing shipowners to reroute voyages and insurers to reassess risks. With the added threat of Somali piracy in the Indian Ocean, navigating these waters demands increased vigilance and strategic planning.
Russia and Ukraine
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began in early 2022, continues to severely impact maritime operations in the Black Sea. The region remains a high-risk zone, with elevated insurance premiums and strict warranties reflecting the persistent dangers. Recent months have seen intensified attacks, particularly on grain ports such as Odesa and Yuzhny, exacerbating global food security concerns and endangering seafarers.
China and Taiwan
China’s persistent threats toward Taiwan and recent maritime incidents have heightened global concerns over regional stability and security. Viewing Taiwan as a breakaway province despite its democratic governance, China has escalated military drills around the island, simulating port blockades, particularly after the election of Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-te in April 2024. These activities have made Marine insurers increasingly cautious, with many hesitant to offer war cover for Taiwanese vessels due to the heightened risk of detention, blocking, or trapping.
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