In recent weeks, all eyes have been on the Middle East as the US brokered a ceasefire in Gaza. This is the first stage of a long-term peace plan where every step is exceptionally delicate. The lasting success of the plan has broad implications for the region and the safety of shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Gulf. The marine war insurance market takes a cautious approach, with threat levels from various actors in the region remaining high until more concrete implementation of the next stages of the process occurs.

The global marine underwriting community gathered in Singapore during early September for the IUMI conference. It was reported that the global Hull premium increased by 3.5% in 2024 to USD9.67billion, with the world fleet value increasing by 4% to USD1.54trillion during the same period. It was noted that “whilst the overall premium base continues to rise, the underlying risk environment is intensifying, driven by an ageing fleet, more severe losses, geopolitical shocks and the operational complexities of the energy transition.”

The Hull and Machinery market has remained competitive into the final quarter of 2025 as Underwriters continue to work towards ambitious growth targets for year-end. London has seen the most intense competition, with several MGAs vying for new business alongside large, established players looking to maintain their participation across their portfolios and increase share on the most attractive fleets. Sectors which are traditionally less popular have started to come under more rating pressure as underwriters look for new areas to grow.

Until this stage, additional capacity has been limited to new MGAs and ambitious growth plans from large incumbent players. However, Cincinnati Global Syndicate 318 recently announced that they will start a Hull portfolio with the appointment of Mike Thompson from TMHCC. Furthermore, Vicky Hayward will join speciality MGA platform K2 Rubicon to start a Hull book following her departure from Talbot. In the absence of any departures from the Hull space, we would anticipate a continued competitive environment in 2026.

The average age of the global fleet is now over 22 years. In part, this is certainly due to elderly tankers continuing to operate in the market as part of the shadow fleet transporting sanctioned products. But a buoyant tanker market has generally seen fewer vessels heading for recycling. As such, ageing machinery is a concern for Underwriters, especially in an inflationary environment where the cost of steel, labour and repair yards continues to rise. There have been several large losses this year, with fires and groundings leading the way in terms of severity.

Ancillary classes such a Builder’s Risks and War have added some profitability to fairly marginal Hull portfolios. However, the geopolitical environment is volatile, and the potential for severe losses on war risks is high, with several vessels being declared total losses this year and a number of potential claims arising from detentions and disputes, in some cases, not in areas considered to be high-risk. Likewise, Builder’s Risks has been profitable over recent years, but history should remind us of the potential for very large losses on complex high-value projects.