09 October 2023
What does the ageing seafarer workforce mean for shipping’s risk profile?
The ageing workforce
UK industry stakeholders have expressed concern about the age profile of seafarers for some time now. In 2015 more than one-third of UK seafarers were over 50, meaning that an even larger proportion of the workforce is due to retire in the near future.
The latest UK seafarer demographic data from the UK government illustrates a continuation of this trend: while 53% of UK seafarers were aged 40 to 61, deck ratings tended to be older on average than other seafarers with 64% of this group aged 40 to 61.
BIMCO and the International Chamber of Shipping’s most recent Seafarer Workforce Report confirmed this issue is one of global proportions, with recruitment insufficient to match the attrition of experienced officers reaching retirement.
The report also found the following distinctions between seafarer age profiles and nationality:
· The largest proportion of officers aged between 21 and 30 are Indian
· The largest proportion between 31 and 40 are Chinese
· Most Filipino officers are aged over 41
· Almost a quarter of Russian officers are over 50 years of age.
The demographic profile for STCW-certified ratings shows that while 75% of Indian seafarers are aged between 21 and 40, significant proportions of Ukrainian, Chinese, and Filipino seafarers fall within the 51-60 age bracket.
Data for management level officers (master, chief officer, chief engineer, second engineer), operational level officers, and support level ratings shows ages have all increased since 2015.
Problems faced by the ageing seafarers
Working on a ship can be challenging due to the constant motion of the vessel. The movement increases task demands, which in turn leads to a longer time to complete tasks. Additionally, it can cause a loss of balance, seasickness, sleep disturbance, slips, trips, and falls, as well as general tiredness.
Seafarers have to use ladders and hatches daily, sometimes in extreme temperatures and spend long periods aboard the ship. They are often isolated from their families and have limited opportunities to disengage from work. According to the European Harbour Masters’ Committee, 95% of seafarers’ injuries are caused by ropes and wires, with 60% happening during mooring.
Health is an increasing cost relating to seafarers in general. Associated costs such as medical expenses, and repatriation costs and claims have raised P&I clubs’ focus on this issue.
Summary of cost estimates and assumptions
Source: Health Economics Review
Certain health-related generalisations can be made regarding age, which would especially apply to seafarers. As we age, we typically experience decline in:
- Aerobic capacity
- Grip and lifting strength
- Balance
- Eyesight
- Hearing
- Reaction time
- Limb motility
- Tissue and joint motility
- Flexibility
- Tolerance for paced work
- Ability to recover from slips and trips
- Knee function
- Longer recovery time from physical work
- Short-term memory
- Tolerance for heat and cold
- Joint function (pain/arthritis)
Case Study: Accidents occurring due to the ageing population
In 2019, the death of a 72-year-old master onboard a UK-flagged dredger raised concerns about the high rate of accidents involving older seafarers. Captain Brian Smith sustained fatal injuries after he was crushed between the Cherry Sand and a jetty at the port of Rosyth.
The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) was alarmed that UK Dredging and Clyde Marine had failed to spot 'notable errors and omissions' on the master's ENG1 medical certificate, which wrongly stated that he was not fit for lookout duties and failed to mention he had monocular vision and wore a prosthetic lens in his right eye – without which his depth and distance perception would have been negatively affected.
The fatality followed a similar incident a month earlier when a 67-year-old chief officer was injured as he attempted to step ashore from Cherry Sand during a self-mooring operation.
More than 40% of the seafarers who had lost their lives in the occupational accidents the MAIB has investigated over the past five years were over 50 years old. Over the same period, the four persons who lost their lives while attempting to step on/off during mooring operations were aged between 58 and 72.
More research is needed
Nevertheless, there is no clear consensus on whether the number of accidents at sea has increased with the age of seafarers. Some studies have found a correlation between the two, while others have disagreed.
One 2014 study investigating fatal accidents and injuries among UK merchant seafarers found no correlation between the age of seafarers and the number of accidents at sea. The study examined the 66 fatalities occurring between 2003 and 2012 and found the mean age of the deceased was 40 years. The study also showed that seafarers who died from accidents caused mainly by mechanical factors were of similar ages to those who died from accidents due to human error.
A repatriation study by the Yale School of Medicine found there to be no significant correlation between repatriation rates and age, sex, rank or work site. It did however flag differences regarding nationality, with Indian seafarers having a markedly higher rate of repatriation compared to Filipinos. Meanwhile, a Danish study on age and nationality in relation to injuries at sea among officers and non-officers found that age did affect risk with the younger (<30 years) and older (>50 years) seafarers having increased risk.[3]
The absence of a clear agreement on this matter implies that the correlation between the age of seafarers and the frequency of maritime accidents is intricate and might be impacted by several variables. Further investigation is required to determine the actual effect of the ageing seafarer workforce on the security of shipping.
Mental health and wellbeing are aspects that require more attention. The Mission to Seafarers’ quarterly Seafarers Happiness Index report, found that overall happiness in Q2 2023 dropped to 6.77/10, down from 7.1/10 in Q1. While in Q1 2023, age was determined as a key factor in the happiness of seafarers with 16 to 25-year-olds averaging a happiness rating of 7.4 whilst 55 to 65-year-olds averaged a significantly lower 6.5 and over 65-year-olds reported a 6.8 rating.
What will happen when these older seafarers retire?
The BIMCO/ICS Seafarer Workforce Report has warned that shipping must significantly increase training and recruitment levels if it is to avoid a serious shortage of officers by 2026. Demand for officers has outstripped supply: an additional 89,510 officers are required by 2026 to operate the world merchant fleet and there is a current shortfall of 26,240 STCW-certified officers.
Recruiting officers with technical experience, especially at management level, has been a significant challenge. The primary obstacle in hiring candidates has been the lack of experience working on specific ship types, followed closely by competency in ship handling and technical knowledge. In terms of officer recruitment and turnover, in 2021, almost two-thirds (64%) of the officers working within the company were recruited in the past five years. Officer turnover decreased slightly to 6.2% in 2021 from the 8.6% reported in 2015.
Yet the problem extends more widely. In 2019 roughly 1.2 million seafarers were employed worldwide with more than 8,000 new vessels on order. Supply/demand chain statistics show a shortage of seafarers by as much as 45,000 in the near future.
How might the ageing population impact insurance?
- Increased cost of insurance: P&I clubs will take into account the increased risk of accidents associated with an ageing seafarer workforce when setting premiums, meaning premiums could increase in the future.
- Shortage of qualified seafarers: As the seafarer workforce ages, there is a shortage of qualified seafarers to replace them, placing further upward pressure on P&I premiums.
- Increased demand for training: P&I clubs are recommending seafarers receive more training to reduce the risk of accidents. This training can be expensive, but forgoing it could also lead to higher premiums.
How can the industry mitigate the impact of mass retirement?
Their responses to the Global Maritime Forum show that the next generation of seafarers is most concerned with human sustainability and how an employer treats its workforce. The most important step for the industry must be to improve retention and this involves tackling the main reasons that seafarers are leaving the industry. Some motivations, such as family, are difficult to counter, but there are others that can be addressed.
Shipowners can ensure crew are entitled to:
· Regular shore breaks
· Adequate rest hours within their shift
· A vessel that is safe, and security guards are hired when sailing in high-risk areas
· Sufficient crew members to cover the tasks at hand
· Regular training
· Generous and nutritious sustenance
· Good Wi-Fi connections so they can keep in contact with loved ones
Various countries and governments have taken action to encourage people to join the marine industry. In 2019, the UK unveiled a suite of new policies to support young people considering a maritime career, including a GBP 100,000 roadshow programme and GBP 300,000 for a new Maritime Skills Commission to identify existing and future skills needs of the sector, informing the training curriculum and ensuring it evolves over time. In the same year, the European Community Shipowners’ Association announced an EU-funded maritime growth plan. The plan includes a communications campaign, outreach with schools and universities, promoting gender diversity and equality and a focus on skills enhancement for existing seafarers.
Conclusion
The ageing seafarer workforce is a complex issue and is likely to impact P&I insurance in the future. P&I clubs are taking steps to address this increasing exposure, but it will continue to be a challenge for the industry in the years to come. On top of potentially higher premiums, the ageing workforce is likely to add additional costs for shipowners in the form of training and recruitment. Crew retention will be key to addressing this problem and that starts with valuing seafarers and supporting their physical and mental wellbeing.
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