23 December 2025
Managing weather-related risks: today and tomorrow
Thunderstorms, fog, icing, severe turbulence, strong winds, hail, heavy rain, cyclones, snow, sandstorms, freezing rain, volcanic ash, lee waves, and microbursts – these are just some of the dangerous weather phenomena that threaten aviation safety. It is the responsibility of flight crews to avoid these hazards when operational limits (such as wind speed, visibility, or snow depth) are likely to be exceeded, or when the risk level of the phenomenon itself demands it.
In practice, avoidance may mean postponing departure, altering a flight path, interrupting an approach or landing, holding in flight until conditions improve, or rerouting entirely.
Historical Examples of Weather-Related Incidents
Black Ice at Anchorage (1975)
On the night of December 16, 1975, the crew of a Boeing 747 was taxiing slowly toward the departure runway at Anchorage Airport. The pilots were monitoring wind gusts, which were nearing the authorised limit, and considered waiting for conditions to improve before take-off. Light rain had been falling for several minutes, with temperatures at 4°C. Unbeknownst to the crew, raindrops from the previous hour had frozen on contact with the icy ground, forming black ice. The taxiway became so slippery that the captain was forced to stop. A gust of wind then caused the aircraft to pivot and, despite full braking on all sixteen main gear wheels, the 747 slid backwards several meters below runway level. Only two people were injured, but the accident could have been far more serious. The crew lacked accurate information about the presence of black ice, leading to an underestimation of the taxiing risks and a delayed decision to postpone departure.
Microburst at Dallas (1985)
On the afternoon of August 2, 1985, the crew of a Tristar approaching Dallas bypassed a storm cell and lined up for landing in the rain. Two minutes before touchdown, the pilots observed a streak of lightning directly ahead. Suddenly, the indicated air speed dropped, and the rate of descent increased. The pilot applied full thrust and attempted to correct the flight path, but it was too late. The aircraft crashed into a water tank and caught fire, killing 134 passengers and crew. Neither air traffic control nor the pilots of the two preceding aircraft had reported any danger. At the time, microbursts were poorly understood, and crews lacked both the training and equipment to handle them.
Weather as a Contributing Factor in Aviation Safety
In the early days of aviation, weather was often cited as the direct ‘cause’ of accidents. Today, as weather-related hazards are better managed, this classification has nearly disappeared from accident statistics. However, when the weather is considered as a contributory factor, the picture changes. The Flight Safety Foundation’s ASN dynamic dashboard identifies weather as a factor in several accident categories: turbulence, windshear and thunderstorms, runway excursions, abnormal runway contact, controlled flight into terrain, and loss of control.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) classifies weather hazards as a ‘threat’ in its Threat and Error Management model. This aligns with how pilots, dispatchers, operations control centres, air navigation service providers, and airports assess weather risks – both before and during flights. It is also the framework used by accident investigation authorities when analysing weather-related incidents.
Key Principles for Managing Weather Risks
Anticipation, detection, and avoidance are the cornerstones of weather risk management. Safety is not necessarily determined by the severity of a weather phenomenon, but by how well these principles are applied. Fierce storms or cyclones, for example, rarely cause accidents when properly managed.
The most dangerous situations are those that:
- Evolve too rapidly to be reported in time. For instance, sudden, heavy downpours can overwhelm runway drainage systems, leading to water accumulation and reduced braking performance – conditions that airports and weather services may struggle to measure or communicate in real time.
- Involve phenomena that are not yet fully understood, preventing the development of effective detection equipment and training. Microbursts, high-altitude ice crystals, and volcanic ash have all exposed such gaps in the past.
- Are unexpectedly large, making avoidance manoeuvres impossible due to insufficient fuel reserves. Broad storm fronts, extensive fog, sandstorms or extremely strong cross-wind affecting both destinations and alternate airports are particularly feared for this reason.
Prerequisites for Effective Weather Risk Management
Successful anticipation, detection, and avoidance depend on several prerequisites:
- A clear understanding of weather hazards
- Well-defined aircraft design and operational limitations
- Effective on-board detection and avoidance equipment
- Strong airmanship and decision-making processes
- Timely communication of observations and forecasts to pilots
- Adequate fuel reserves and well-chosen alternate airport options
- Failure in any of these areas can lead to accidents.
The Impact of Climate Change on Weather Risk Management
Understanding weather phenomena also involves considering the effects of climate change. How will the future affect the principles and prerequisites of anticipation, detection, and avoidance? Will aircraft design and operational limitations need to adapt to extreme ground heat or more intense turbulence? Can current on-board detection and avoidance equipment continue to protect us as effectively as it has in the past? Will weather forecasting keep pace with new weather patterns? And will regulations governing fuel reserves and alternative airport options remain relevant?
The World Meteorological Organisation’s 2025 report, “Impacts of Climate Change on Aviation Operations,” offers some insights but leaves many questions unanswered regarding turbulence, icing, severe convection, jet streams, the tropopause, ground temperatures, tropical cyclones, near-surface winds, sand/dust storms, fog, freezing precipitation, and rising sea levels at coastal airports.
Will ongoing global climate change lead to more dangerous situations within these categories? This is a question for meteorologists and climatologists. However, it is the responsibility of all air transport stakeholders to be prepared.
Preparing for the Future
Every day, airlines, airports, air navigation service providers, spaceports, weather services, aircraft manufacturers, equipment providers, and researchers make critical decisions to navigate weather challenges. The quality, processing, and presentation of data are vital for end users. Safety analysis conducted under existing Safety Management Systems (SMS) provides a common reference and a strong foundation for cooperation, helping to make operations safer and more efficient in the face of weather-related risks.
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