07 October 2026
Access to space The launch bottleneck
Access to proven launch capacity remains a key constraint facing satellite owners and operators. Over the past five years, the global launch market has experienced unprecedented growth, driven by increasing demand for satellite connectivity, Earth observation services, national security requirements and the continued build-out of large-scale constellations. Since 2020, annual launch activity has increased materially, with 2025 recording 348 orbital launches worldwide and this growth trajectory is expected to continue through 2026. That volume would have seemed unobtainable only a decade ago. However, for many of our clients, securing access to the right launch slot, on the right vehicle and within the required mission timetable can still be a significant bottleneck.
The growth and investment in launch capability have been supported by maturing technologies, more streamlined manufacturing processes and an increasing number of commercial launch providers capable of offering access to orbit. SpaceX has been at the forefront of many of the advances and is now able to launch more frequently in the span of a few weeks than many heritage providers can launch in a year, establishing Falcon 9 as the workhorse of the space industry.
This access to space has also enabled huge growth across the sector, with global space revenue estimated at USD 550-600bn in 2025. Projects looking to deliver on large scale government initiatives such as Golden Dome, sovereign satellite programs, commercial broadband constellations and AI-enabled space infrastructure are currently highly attractive to investors as they seek to capitalise on the rapid growth across the space industry.
With recent commentary suggesting that SpaceX is considering retiring the Falcon 9 once Starship is operational, an important question arises: how would the industry manage a potential transition away from Falcon 9, and would competitors be able to capitalise on any resulting capacity gap?
From dozens to hundreds: The transformation of launch activity
The exhibit to the right illustrates the growth in launches since 2020. While future activity remains subject to market conditions, our analysis, informed by current market estimates, suggests that launch volumes could exceed 400 in 2026. However, once the data is considered in more detail, several important nuances become clear.
Source: Information collated from Seradata, Gallagher, and market knowledge. Information is believed to be accurate but cannot be guaranteed. All launches are up to date as of 27.08.2026
Growth has been driven by SpaceX
The data clearly shows that the recent growth in commercial launches has been primarily driven by SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Despite the long-awaited additions of Ariane 6, New Glenn and Vulcan, their impact on overall launch capacity remains limited. With nine launches of Ariane 6, three launches of New Glenn and four launches of ULA’s Vulcan, these vehicles are still materially behind SpaceX’s 167 launches in 2025 and 629 total launches since 2020 at the time of writing. Further, with Ariane 6’s cadence currently expected to reach up to 10 launches a year, and ULA’s Vulcan targeting 16-18 per year, the ability of these competitors to meaningfully replace the cadence of Falcon 9 remains limited.
Another success story worth noting is Rocket Lab’s Electron launch vehicle. Although significantly behind SpaceX’s cadence, Electron has become a core part of small satellite launch capability and represents more than 30% of the “All Other Launches” category above in 2025.
New entrants pushing towards full commercialisation
While the industry may struggle to fill any near-term gap left by Falcon 9 within the traditional commercial launch sector, a number of emerging New Space launch providers are showing strong technical capabilities, including Isar Space, MaiaSpace, Firefly and Stoke Space. However, the vast majority remain focused on reaching full commercial service and have yet to demonstrate repeatable successful launches.
With many of these companies targeting multiple launches in 2027, there is an expectation that this sector of the launch market will become more diverse. The key question for satellite owners will be when they can consider these vehicles sufficiently proven, available and reliable enough to form part of their mainstream procurement strategies.
Geopolitics and Launch Vehicle Availability
Russian and Chinese launch vehicles accounted for almost a third of all launches in 2025, and the Chinese launch industry in particular has grown rapidly over the past five years. Through both government-backed programmes and commercial players such as LandSpace, Galactic Energy and Orienspace, Chinese capacity and capability continue to expand in support of the constellation programmes currently underway in the region.
Due to geopolitical concerns, sanctions and ITAR/EAR export control requirements, Russian and Chinese vehicles are not viable options for many international buyers. However, as seen historically with the DFH-4 bus, we may see several operators look to capitalise on the growth of Chinese capability by giving increased consideration to the procurement of Chinese technology as and when this is viable.
Size Matters
For customers looking to secure launches for smaller satellites, there are several options on the horizon as we outline above. But for larger and heavier satellites, the launch vehicles available in the immediate future look more limited.
Many new heavy-lift vehicles are expected to be heavily aligned to government missions rather than commercial missions. In addition, key vehicles such as Blue Origin’s New Glenn are expected to be heavily deployed facilitating in-house satellite constellations.
Relativity’s Terran R and Rocket Lab’s Neutron are both potential future challengers in the medium- to heavy-lift market, but neither is likely to move forward into regular commercial service in the short term.
This lack of availability for true heavy-lift vehicles is a particular concern for space infrastructure projects such as space stations and space-based solar power, where Starship may be the only commercial option available.
Securing a launch – the commercial reality
The success of any space mission is dependent on access to launch capacity. Therefore, launch procurement remains a critical and strategic mission consideration.
Availability, vehicle heritage and schedule certainty are increasingly relevant not only to operators’ programme planning, but also to the assessment of the overall risk by key partners such as investors and insurers.
Given current market dynamics, the current significant reliance on SpaceX Falcon 9 is likely to continue. If Falcon 9 cadence reduces materially as Starship scales, customers are likely to face a transition period with a lack of proven alternatives available at comparable cost, proven reliability and cadence.
Looking forward over the next three years, the launch vehicle market, particularly for smaller satellites and LEO missions, is expected to become more diverse and competitive. At this stage selecting a launch provider that has not yet demonstrated sustained commercial success still requires careful judgement. However, these same vehicles may well become an important part of the commercial launch market in the coming years.
An insurance focus
From an insurance perspective, launch vehicle heritage and proven reliability remain key factors in underwriter appetite, available capacity and pricing. Underwriters remain keen to deploy capacity on proven vehicles such as Falcon 9, and confidence in Ariane 6 will continue to build with further success. However, for newer launch vehicles, both small and large, significant capacity will only become readily available following demonstrated success, and any anomalies experienced will result in a significant knock to insurer confidence.
The commercial implication for insurance buyers is clear: launch procurement decisions have a direct impact on insurability, available capacity, pricing and policy terms.
Space is a long-term, strategic business, and our clients are having to manage the current constraints of the launch vehicle market while also planning for missions launching in the future. Keeping pace with changes in launch capability, availability and proven heritage therefore remains critical to procurement and insurance strategy.
Gallagher continues to support satellite owners and buyers in assessing launch procurement risk, insurance market appetite and the potential cost for risk transfer. Noting the lead times for launch vehicles, early engagement remains important, particularly where programmes involve newer vehicles, constrained launch windows or reliance on capacity that has not yet built a substantial commercial flight record.
For a more tailored review of the launch market for your upcoming missions, risk management support and options for risk transfer, please get in contact with the Gallagher Space Team via the contact information opposite.
Market Update
The fourth quarter of 2026 is gearing up to be competitive. The depressed levels of premium income in 2026 to date has led underwriters to further increase their appetites for in-orbit risks, launch vehicle flight risks and heritage GEO business. As a result, well-presented risks offered to the market ahead of year end should attract meaningful market interest. After the pricing corrections that followed significant losses in 2019 and 2023/24, this increased competition may create more favourable pricing conditions for buyers, particularly where the technical fundamentals are strong. This will no doubt be well received by buyers, and we continue to work with our clients to assess the optimum insurance solutions which match the current market pricing and conditions.
As we move through Q4, MGAs, consortia and reinsurance buyers will be developing their business plans for future years and seeking to secure capacity for 2027. Feedback from underwriters suggests that the launch portfolio for 2027 and 2028 is showing signs of rebounding from current historically low levels which, alongside strong market underwriting results in 2026 year to date, should support a positive response from capacity providers.
New Space risks are continuing to gain traction with key markets, and as these technologies move from R&D into commercialisation, several additional markets are taking a greater interest in those risks that may start to align with their underwriting appetites. However, insurers continue to remain cautious with new platforms, and a strong technical and commercial basis is required to support the deployment of capacity.
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