Key Market Influences in 2025

Reduction of overall 2023/2024 claims – Overall claims for 2023/24 have decreased from USD1.9 billion to USD1.5 billion, representing a more than 20% decrease, driven primarily by an improving technical outlook on impaired satellites and underwriter settlement negotiations. The majority of these claims have now been settled, with insurers achieving certainty on their final costs and an ability to refocus on the much-improved profitability in 2025.

Rating increases on launch businesses are being realised – The significant increase in premium rating in 2023 and 2024 is now being realised, with premiums for key launch programmes being paid to insurers through 2025. Although the volume of large insured GEO launches remains historically low, several large programmes placed after the rating shift were launched in 2025 – including SpainSat NG1, SpainSat NG2, and Viasat-3 F2 – delivering much-needed premium income for insurers.

Low claims volume – In stark contrast to 2023 and 2024, there has been very little claims activity in 2025, with only a handful of low-value claims reported to date. Whilst there have been a few close calls and the potential for claims remains subject to several heavily insured satellites with electric propulsion yet to complete their in-orbit testing, the current market claims total is on track to be the lowest in almost a decade.

Capacity remains ample – Overall market capacity has seen a small increase through 2025, with both the ex-Hiscox team and the ex-Volante team resurfacing as Phemis and Aesir Space, respectively. Non-distressed risks continue to attract an excess of market capacity. This is particularly apparent in risks with low sums insured or on launch vehicle flight-only risks, where we see a significant number of insurers unable to achieve their proposed terms and/or participation as others look to maximise their involvement on a more competitive basis.

Feedback on reinsurance renewals and respective capacity is showing that capital providers remain keen to support the space insurance market. We expect to see a number of MGAs and Lloyd’s consortia increase their overall capacity levels, alongside Whitecap Aerospace (with Tim Wright) and Hive (with Jack Kenneally), starting to underwrite space risks in 2026.

New technology and ‘New Space’ challenges – There is a continued decline in ‘Old Space’ GEO orders (six orders in both 2024 and 2025), resulting in significant insurer competition for these launch risks, with many underwriters viewing them as an essential, foundational part of their portfolio. Several insurers are also looking to increase participation in GEO in-orbit fleet programmes to keep their portfolios focused on these ‘heritage risks’ in an effort to maintain their targeted annual premium levels.

Many of the twelve recent satellite orders are either Software-Defined Satellites (SDS) or new small GEO platforms. As such, after a period of hesitation due to the perceived risks associated with new technology, the realisation that they reflect the majority of the potential market’s premium income looking forward is driving underwriters to now fully embrace these programmes. Gallagher has been at the cutting edge of these complex and groundbreaking programmes, demonstrating its deep knowledge and ability to secure capacity for clients. We have developed a unique insight and experience base, which is proving highly influential in delivering bespoke coverage and competitive terms from insurers.

The number of insured ‘New Space’ satellite risks beyond launch continues to remain proportionally low, with a lack of appetite from potential buyers to purchase at the current market rating and with its demanding processes. This limits insurers' ability to develop a meaningful spread of risks, which, when combined with several notable mission failures (including insured claims), causes underwriters to remain very cautious when deploying capacity on these risks.