06 April 2023
The third aviation revolution
Unfortunately, the aviation industry hasn’t always set the standards for advancement. This however is changing. Our hope for transformative development is progressing, with all of us involved in some form of innovation in our respective companies. We have experienced significant positive change in more recent years.
With that in mind, I wanted to write on the Third Aviation Revolution and what that is, how excited we are to be experiencing this development around us and reflect on what that may mean for insurers. For clarity, the first revolution was powered flight, the second the invention of jet propulsion and the third is the development of electric powered aircraft.
15 years ago, I was at an aviation conference where an insurance colleague gave a presentation on UAVs (Unmanned Arial Vehicles) where interest was low and most in the audience had left or were visibly wrapping up to do so. Yet today we are in the midst of an explosion of rapid development and technological advancements where it’s hard to deny the relevance that drones will have in our everyday life.
"Drones are now helping to keep our trains running, inspect our roads, bridges and waterways, and to ensure our power lines, wind turbines and oil & gas platforms are safe"
Drones aren’t new, with development in the military dating back to WWI (the term was coined from a pilotless target vehicle called the Queen Bee). But more recent progress in drone technology has meant an explosion in commercial and personal use. Advances in robotics, battery power, gyro design, communications, sensing, AI and GPS and related technology have enabled innovators supported by increasing levels of investment to develop new drones, unlocking new business models across all industries.
Drones are now helping to keep our trains running, inspect our roads, bridges and waterways, and to ensure our power lines, wind turbines and oil & gas platforms are safe. They are in use for surveying and inspection in construction, housing, infrastructure, agriculture for crop spraying, soil analysis and seeding.
They also support critical public services; coastguard, police and fire and rescue services are using drones to respond to emergencies, whilst the lucrative global market in healthcare logistics is also already being tapped into by drone operators. Drones are even helping fight climate change and assist with sustainability. Used as portable sensors, they can capture data to monitor water security, ocean health, reforestation, conservation, and environmental protection.
Drones are now common features for major celebrations with swarm displays, in some cases using over 3,000 drones, creating incredible light shows with sophisticated safety functionality and redundancy.
One company has tested deliveries for a well-known burger chain where the aim is for faster service but also crispier fries and firmer burgers than that we may get from conventional scooter delivery. That same company is also test delivering coffee deliveries which are no more expensive than our favourite high street shops.
In a few years’ time I am sure we will all be using apps for drone operators offering services of a scope unimaginable a decade ago enabled by investment, regulation, support and upskilling.
Significantly, a consequence of drone innovation is the reduction of road congestion and carbon emissions. A recent PwC report predicts that by 2030 more than 900,000 could operate in the UK skies alone and that carbon emissions could be reduced by 2.4m tons.
The development of BVLOS (Beyond Visual Line of Sight) operations is a game changer. This will enable services to fly further controlled by programmed routing, GPS and geo fencing technology or operated from ground station control. This will also lead inevitably to larger drones and whilst regulation remains quite slow in the UK we are seeing proposed segregated airspace channels being prepared for longer BVLOS operations - supported by well-known communication giants.
As drone capabilities improve, in many cases they will not only replace helicopters and fixed wing aircraft but will create entirely new services. According to a recent Grand View Research report, the global commercial drone market size was estimated at USD29.86bn in 2022. It is anticipated to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.6% from 2023 to 2030.
The adoption of drones to replace helicopters and some fixed wing aircraft will have an impact on general aviation no doubt. But, the largest and most positive impact will be through the creation of new services and sustainable increased use of airspace instead of road and water.
SO WHERE NEXT?
The third revolution will consider development, often related, for urban or advanced air mobility where short journeys (taxis) will be provided by vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for up to 10 people. These are undergoing flight testing already, with land being purchased to invest in the creation of vertiports. The next step is regional air mobility, or broader electrification with 10+ person aircraft.
With an ever increasing commoditised market where real USP is hard to come by, I’m really looking forward to the advances we increasingly read about turning into reality.
As importantly, we should not underestimate our critical role in the success of all aspects of the Third Aviation Revolution: our own revolution and transformation as industry experts will continue to be vital. I predict this will increasingly be the topic for future papers as the Third Aviation Revolution takes off.
The Walbrook Building 25 Walbrook London, EC4N 8AW
Author
Martin Jackson
Class Leader, Aviation
Apollo Syndicate Management Limited
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