In the latest edition of Gallagher’s Structured Credit and Political Risk (SCPR) Insurance Market Report, we provide an up-to-date reflection of the market’s capacity, notable market moves since our Q1 2025 edition and a handful of country reports compiled by Pangea-Risk.
When Gallagher started compiling data in 2010, the SCPR insurance market comprised 31 Lloyd’s syndicates and companies that could offer just under USD750 million of aggregate single-deal capacity for CR risks and USD1.1 billion for CF. 15 years later, it has transformed into a 75-plus-strong marketplace with an aggregate single-deal capacity of circa USD3 billion for CR and USD3.5 billion for CF, providing cover for increasingly complex financial structures for consistently longer policy periods. But where has this growth come from?
Whilst there has been a steady increase in capacity over the years, recently a significant amount of new capacity has appeared in the form of Managing General Agents (MGAs). Despite the difficult geopolitical environment and high levels of sovereign debt, including several defaults, this wave of new capacity has meant:
1. Rates have remained steady or softened.
2. The percentage of gross margin taken by insurers is now consistently lower than in previous years.
3. Insurers are moving into different client sectors and lending classes to grow their premium base.
4. Cover can be found on an increasing number of names and countries, subject to perceived risk quality, of course.
This growth is encouraging, but it is the market’s reliability, speed of response, track record for paying claims and ingenuity in finding solutions to support its clients’ businesses that make it stand out. The private insurance market has clearly become a highly valued and integral partner for exporters, financial institutions, investors and traders alike.
We continue to produce this report in conjunction with Pangea-Risk, who have provided us with the concise country risk reports and the risk map. Their expertise continues to support us and our clients in enhancing our understanding of global risk landscapes. The Pangea-World Global Risk Ratings are based on proprietary methodology using a default high-risk score and reproduced for Arthur J. Gallagher (UK) Limited. More details are available at www.pangea-risk.com.
Product Glossary
On behalf of our clients, Gallagher's Structured Credit and Political Risk team arrange insurance products to mitigate the risks arising out of trading, financing and investing - often with a focus on developing markets.
Click to view a full glossary of the terms referenced in this page.
INTERPRETING THE NUMBERS
The Lloyd’s market uses risk codes to track the cover being provided. The applicable risk code is determined by the characteristics of the underlying loan, trade, contract, or investment being made. These risk codes are also recognised by non-Lloyd’s insurers. Later in this report, we provide market capacity data by risk code for each insurer. To assist with the interpretation of this data, below we summarise the primary risk codes, as well as the main types of insurance that relate to these risk codes.
As advised previously, the Financial Guarantee (FG) risk code is no longer used for the insuring of unsecured non-trade finance. However, as many insurers still have different underwriting capabilities depending on whether the financing is for ‘trade’ or ‘non-trade’, we use the letters ‘NT’ to show the capacity for underwriting the latter (please note NT is not a formal risk code).
RISK CODES
Credit Risk (Risk Code CR) Applicable where the counterparty risk insured is a commercial entity with a majority private ownership.
Contract Frustration (Risk Code CF) Applicable where the counterparty risk insured is a government entity, or a commercial entity controlled and/or majority-owned by a government entity(ies). Alternatively, this risk code is applicable where the counterparty risk is a privately owned commercial entity, but the perils insured are limited to political risks.
Political Risk (Risk Code PR) Applicable where the cause of loss is limited to government frustration and/or political perils.
Non-Payment (CR, CF, or NT) • Indemnifies the policyholder for loss caused by the failure and/or refusal of an obligor to honour its contractual debt obligation.
Non-Delivery/Pre-Finance (CR or CF) • Indemnifies the policyholder for loss caused by the failure and/or refusal of a supplier to honour its obligations under a prefinanced supply contract or return pre-financed sums.
Pre-Shipment Insurance (CR or CF) • Indemnifies the policyholder in circumstances where, prior to the establishment of an amount owing under an export contract, the buyer terminates the contract (in circumstances where they have no right to do so), or where there is an occurrence of certain pre-defined political perils that prevent the fulfilment of the contract. • Can be combined with Post-Shipment Insurance to form ‘Pre and Post Shipment Cover’.
Post-Shipment Insurance (CR or CF) • Indemnifies the policyholder in circumstances where, after the establishment of an amount owing under an export contract, the buyer fails to pay sums due, or is unable to, as a consequence of the occurrence of currency inconvertibility and/or exchange transfer. • Can be combined with Pre-Shipment Insurance to form ‘pre and post shipment cover’.
Political Risk Insurance (PR) • Indemnifies the policyholder for loss caused by government frustration and/or political perils, including but not limited to: – Confiscation, Expropriation, Nationalisation, Deprivation (CEND). – Forced abandonment or divestiture. – Selective discrimination. – Licence cancellation. – Political violence and terrorism (including strikes, riots, civil commotion, malicious damage, and sabotage). – War and civil war. – Currency inconvertibility and/or exchange transfer. • Cover can be placed in respect of assets or the repayment of debt.
Pangea Risk Emerging Market Review
This section, and the commentary on specific countries which follows, has been compiled in association with Pangea Risk.
Ghana
Ghana has made considerable progress in restoring fiscal stability since its 2022 default, as a major debt restructuring operation continues to make progress, boosting investor confidence. An agreement with Ghana’s bilateral creditors in early 2025 has improved the prospects for successful debt restructuring, although a deal with some commercial creditors is still outstanding. Nonetheless, Ghana will continue to face challenges in addressing mounting debt servicing obligations and the clearance of domestic arrears. Efforts to raise revenues are constrained, and the government has chiefly relied on cost-cutting measures to reduce the budget deficit. While external support remains robust, the ending of an IMF programme in May 2026 raises risks to fiscal stability beyond this point. The economic outlook has improved, driven by new investments into the oil and gas sector and increased gold exports. The repayment of domestic arrears will also allow for stalled road infrastructure projects to restart.
South Africa
South Africa's political and economic environment remains complex as the ruling Government of National Unity coalition balances competing agendas under fresh external and domestic pressures. Externally, reciprocal tariffs that have come into effect in the United States pose a direct risk to key export sectors, exacerbated by volatility in global commodity markets. Meanwhile, the approved budget framework for 2025/26 forecasts public debt to peak at 77.4% of GDP and preserve fiscal buffers without imposing major tax increases, while grappling with sluggish GDP growth and tight financing conditions. The moderation of inflation has allowed the central bank to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance, while a more reliable electricity supply since the beginning of 2025 has raised private sector confidence. Over the medium term, concerted progress in strategic policy reforms, particularly in critical minerals, renewable energy and infrastructure development, will be essential to enhance growth resilience and maintain investment inflows.
Mozambique
Mozambique’s political, security, and economic outlook remains fragile following the October 2024 elections, which were marred by fraud allegations and widespread violence. More than 300 people were killed in the post-election unrest, which disrupted operations across the mining, logistics, and transport sectors. While public protests have subsided in 2025, no political resolution has been reached, leaving the lingering risk of sporadic demonstrations over the coming year. In Cabo Delgado, Islamic State-affiliated insurgents continue to carry out attacks, with some incidents occurring near the USD20 billion Mozambique LNG project, led by TotalEnergies, with a maritime incident off Mocímboa da Praia in May underscoring persistent volatility and growing operational capabilities. These risks have delayed LNG timelines and heightened investor caution. Meanwhile, Mozambique’s fiscal outlook remains strained, with public debt at 78.9% of GDP and growing dependence on short-term domestic instruments. The government is seeking IMF support and may consider restructuring Chinese debt to ease liquidity constraints.
Libya
Libya’s political fragmentation persists, with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the House of Representatives (HoR) operating parallel administrations. The GNU, based in Tripoli, continues to face challenges from the HoR, which supports the rival Government of National Stability in the east. Efforts to unify the country under a single government have stalled, exacerbated by the influence of foreign actors. The United States and Russia are increasingly active, each supporting different factions, thereby entrenching divisions. Economically, Libya remains heavily reliant on oil revenues, which constitute over 95% of state income. The National Oil Corporation has announced plans to increase production to 1.6 million barrels per day, requiring substantial foreign investment. However, the lack of a unified regulatory framework and ongoing security concerns deter potential investors. The upcoming oil and gas bidding round, the first in over 17 years, is unlikely to proceed smoothly amid these challenges. Without political reconciliation and improved security, Libya’s economic prospects remain uncertain.
Morocco
Morocco's macroeconomic stability is reinforced by the International Monetary Fund’s approval of a USD4.5 billion Flexible Credit Line in April 2025, intended as a precautionary measure to bolster external buffers amid global uncertainties. The economy faces challenges from prolonged droughts, which have adversely affected agricultural output and rural employment. In the trade sector, Morocco benefits from a reduced 10% United States tariff rate, contrasting with higher rates imposed on regional peers. However, the EU's imposition of countervailing duties ranging from 5.6%to 31.4& on Moroccan aluminum wheels, citing unfair subsidies and Chinese Belt and Road Initiative involvement, introduces new trade pressures. Despite these challenges, Morocco continues to attract foreign investment, particularly in the renewable energy and the automotive sectors. The government's commitment to infrastructure projects and economic reforms supports a positive outlook, although external shocks and climatic conditions remain potential risks.
MARKET UPDATE JULY 2025
TMK From September 2025, Iwan Jenkins has joined Tokio Marine Kiln as an Underwriter from Axis.
Sovereign
Sovereign have hired Farris Mellor from Miller as Vice President and Underwriting Group Lead.
NOA
Rob Harvey joined the team from Chaucer as an Underwriter and Katherine Henderson retired in April 2025.
Munich RE
In February 2025, Michael Melis joined the team as a Credit Analyst from SCOR.
KEN
Neil Edwards and Jonathan Bint have joined the team from Chaucer as Senior Underwriter and Senior Credit Analyst respectively.Axis CRS Bryan Niggli has joined Axis CRS as Structured Credit Lead from Credit Suisse. Bryan will be based in Zurich and will focus on SRT and other similar portfolio Credit Risk Transfer business.
SK2
K2 have hired a new Senior Credit Analyst, Sujit Dadar, to join the Credit Risk team from Mizuho.
Allianz
Darcy Wright has started at Allianz as a Specialty Credit Underwriter from Hamilton.
Apollo
Dalmar Nur has joined Apollo as Executive Underwriter from Allianz and Amar Budhdeo has joined as a Credit Analyst from Evelyn Partners.
Beazley
Beazley have hired Beth Prohow as Head of the US Political Risk and Trade Credit team in New York. Beth joins from MUFG where she was Head of Credit Insurance of the America’s within the Credit Portfolio Management team in New York.
Hartford
Toby Carr has joined The Hartford as Senior Underwriter from Liberty.
Navitas UK
Paul Carrington joins Navitas UK from Brit as Senior Director – Head of Europe
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