September 2024

Expropriation risk in the mining industry: Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa

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Dave Benyon is joined by our Political Risk Insurance expert Rupert Morgan in this months episode.

In this podcast, Rupert Morgan, Executive Director at Gallagher Specialty, examines the complex world of political risks faced by the mining industry in Sub-Saharan Africa. With a focus on the expropriation risks that mining investors must navigate, Rupert provides insights into the current landscape of political risk insurance, highlighting key trends and challenges in the region.

Key Discussion Points

Africa Down Under (ADU) Conference and Market Analysis

As Rupert prepares for the upcoming Africa Down Under conference in Perth, he shares highlights from Gallagher's latest research on political risk insurance premium rates across Sub-Saharan Africa. The discussion covers year-on-year trends and how risk perceptions have shifted in 2024, with a particular focus on five key countries: Burkina Faso, DRC, Ghana, Mali, and Tanzania.

Country-Specific Risks and Opportunities

  • Burkina Faso: We examine the impact of the 2022 coup on political risk insurance rates and the potential mining opportunities in this politically complex region.
  • Mali: With a military coup and rising Russian influence, Mali poses significant challenges for Western investors. We discuss the current state of mining-related political risk in the country.
  • Ghana: Known for its stability, Ghana is now facing concerns over sovereign non-payment and the influence of Chinese investment. How these factors are affecting political risk premiums?
  • DRC: The Democratic Republic of Congo continues to see rising insurance rates due to ongoing violence and instability. Rupert sheds light on the changing risk perceptions and potential opportunities in the mining-rich Katanga region.
  • Tanzania: Once a hotspot for political risk, Tanzania has seen fluctuations in premium rates. We discuss these changes and the implications for mining investments.

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Rupert Morgan

Executive Director, Political Risk

Rupert_Morgan@ajg.com

The Walbrook Building 25 Walbrook London, EC4N 8AW

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